Texas Senate poll: Talarico edges Paxton as data centers unite voters

Aug. 26, 2026, 11:31 a.m. ET

Just over two months out from Election Day, a new Texas poll found three notable results: the candidates remain statistically tied in the U.S. Senate race, Republicans are pulling ahead in the governor’s race, and Texans are united in their disdain for data centers.

A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, published Aug. 25, finds 42% of Texas voters preferring Democrat state Rep. James Talarico and 39% planning to vote for Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas.

Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, 45% to 40%.

But the issue uniting Texans is their opposition to data centers: 57% said they oppose building a data center in their community, while 30% expressed support.

Here’s a deep look at what the poll says on each topic.

James Talarico is statistically tied with Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race, with a slight edge.

The poll was conducted among 1,200 self-reported registered voters between Aug. 5 and 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points or 3.47% adjusted for weighting.

In a previous Texas Politics Project poll in June, Paxton led Talarico by a percentage point within the poll’s margin of error, 43% to 42%, with 84% of Republicans saying they would support Paxton if the election were held then.

The August poll shows that Talarico leads within the poll’s margin at 42%, with Paxton at 39%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 14% expressing no preference.

Talarico is consolidating Democratic support at 91%, while 79% of Republicans have expressed their commitment to Paxton. Among independents, 37% prefer Talarico, 11% prefer Paxton, and 43% express no preference.

GOP lead in governor’s race, other statewide contests

Previous polling showed movement toward Democrats, but the Texas Politics Project August poll shows the trend has reversed.

Abbott leads Hinojosa, 45% to 40%, with the remaining 3% preferring Libertarian Pat Dixon, 2% choosing an unspecified “someone else,” and 10% unable to express an opinion.

Hinojosa is still keeping the race in the single digits, closer than Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s final 11-point loss to Abbott in 2022.

In other statewide races:

Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (42%) leads Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (35%) by seven points.
Republican Attorney General state Sen. Mayes Middleton (40%) leads Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson (35%) by five points.
Republican Comptroller Don Huffines (40%) leads Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt (34%) by six points.

Texans continue to oppose data centers in their communities

A majority of Texans, 57%, said they oppose building a data center in their community, while only 30% expressed support and 14% had no opinion, according to the Texas Politics Project August poll.

This is the second consecutive poll from the Texas Politics Project to report the same findings, as its June poll showed 29% supported and 56% opposed local data center construction.