dpUpdated Sept. 9, 2026, 7:40 a.m. ET
- This week will bring the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, a time when tropical activity is at its busiest.
- Forecasters were watching four tropical waves.
- El Niño and its associated wind shear, along with dry, dusty air are making it tough for storms to form or strengthen in the Atlantic basin this year.
Former Hurricane Lowell has weakened as it moves away from the Hawaiian Islands Sept. 9.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin remains quiet, with no tropical cyclone activity expected over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If conditions in the Atlantic continue to remain quiet until Sept. 11 — with no hurricanes forming — a record may be set.
“If no hurricane forms by Friday (Sept. 11), the 2026 Atlantic season will mark the latest point in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane,” according to AccuWeather.
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This week will bring the climatological peak — Sept. 10 — of the Atlantic hurricane season, a time when the number of storms and tropical activity is at its busiest.
The next named storm of the season will be Fay.
El Niño and its associated wind shear, along with dry, dusty air are making it tough for storms to form or strengthen in the Atlantic basin this year.
Forecasters are watching four tropical waves.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Sept. 9.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
No. The National Hurricane Center said no tropical activity is expected over the next seven days.
Could we see a tropical storm or hurricane near Florida in September?
AccuWeather forecasters have highlighted one area off the southeastern coast of the United States with a low chance for tropical development into the middle of September.
“A slow-moving front will drift into the southeastern United States, leading to enhanced thunderstorm coverage. An area of tropical development may take shape offshore in a setup similar to how Edouard formed last week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicholas Arman said.
Quiet Atlantic hurricane season could set record
On average, the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin forms on Aug. 11, according to NOAA. The first major hurricane forms Sept. 1.
As of Sept. 9, there have been five tropical storms, so we’re already well past historic averages, but we’re now approaching a record.
“During the satellite era (1960s to the present), the latest date for the season’s first Atlantic hurricane is Sept. 11, which occurred in both 2002 and 2013,” according to AccuWeather.
“If no hurricane forms by Friday (Sept. 11), the 2026 Atlantic season will mark the latest point in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane.
“The last Atlantic season without a hurricane occurred more than 100 years ago, in 1914.”
Why are the tropics so quiet in the Atlantic?
Wind shear and dry, dusty air have made it difficult for tropical cyclones to form in the Atlantic basin this year.
Both are byproducts of El Niño, which at its most basic, can be described as the natural warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
➤ Here’s what El Niño means for Florida
The presence of El Niño tends to decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico by tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form or preventing them from intensifying through wind shear.
On Sept. 3, Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, posted on X that wind shear in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean “continues to shatter previous records.
“Only seven seasons in satellite era (since 1966) have gone into September without an Atlantic hurricane,” Klotzbach said.
CSU predicting below-normal tropical activity through Sept. 15
In its two-week tropical forecast issued Sept. 2, Colorado State University said it was “strongly favoring below-normal activity” through Sept. 15, adding “there is very little signal for any potential TC (tropical cyclone) development in the next two weeks from any model.”
“Global model signals for TC development in the next two weeks are remarkably weak, given the next two weeks include the climatological peak of the season.”
Historically, major hurricanes develop in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in early to mid-September, according to CSU.
National Hurricane Center tracking 4 tropical waves
There are four tropical waves listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. Sept. 9:
- A tropical wave has its axis near 20W north of 03N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
- A tropical wave has its axis near 53W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 17 to 23 mph.
- A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 19N southward, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
- A central western tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Sept. 9, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
- Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
- Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
- Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly formed Aug. 27Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1- Fay, fay: (sixth-named storm historically forms Aug. 29; first hurricane by Aug. 11; and first major hurricane Sept. 1)
- Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
- Hanna, HAN-uh
- Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
- Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
- Kyle, KY-ull
- Leah, LEE-ah
- Marco, MAR-koe
- Nana, NA-na
- Omar, OH-mar
- Paulette, pawl-LET
- Rene, re-NAY
- Sally, SAL-ee
- Teddy, TEHD-ee
- Vicky, VIH-kee
- Wilfred, WILL-fred
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
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