dpThe Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its long-range weather outlook for August, suggesting that the final full month of meteorological summer could bring thunderstorms across large parts of the United States, along with tropical storm or hurricane threats for several coastal and southern regions.
As a long-range outlook, the forecast describes broad regional patterns rather than exact day-to-day conditions. The Almanac divides the U.S. into zones and outlines whether temperatures and precipitation are expected to trend above or below historical averages.
How Accurate Is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims that its forecasts are about 80 percent accurate, though it notes no forecaster can predict the weather with total accuracy.
The publication says it makes long-range predictions by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity, using solar science, climatology and meteorology.
Here’s a regional overview of what conditions are likely for August, according to the publication:
Northeast
August starts with scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions, before heavier rain develops in the north from August 7 to 10 while the south sees isolated showers and cooler weather. Sunny conditions return before more thunderstorms midmonth, with isolated thunderstorms and mild temperatures expected from August 19 through the end of the month. The Almanac forecasts an August temperature of 67.5 degrees, with precipitation around four inches.
Atlantic Corridor
The month begins with scattered thunderstorms, followed by sunshine and warm conditions through August 14. It then flags a tropical storm threat in the southern part of the region on August 15 and 16, while the north stays sunny and warm. The second half of the month trends sunny and warm before cooler conditions arrive, with isolated thunderstorms possible in the south. August precipitation is forecast at 2 inches, about 2 inches below average.
Appalachians
The Appalachians are expected to see isolated thunderstorms and warm conditions from August 1 to 12, followed by sunnier weather from August 13 to 20 as temperatures shift from cool to warmer. Scattered thunderstorms return for the final stretch of the month, with mild conditions expected. The region’s August temperature is forecast at 71 degrees, 1 degree below average, with precipitation around 2.5 inches.
Southeast
The Southeast outlook calls for scattered thunderstorms to open August, with conditions turning from warm to cool through August 11. From August 12 to 14, the west may see isolated thunderstorms while the east faces a hurricane threat. Showers and cool weather are expected from August 15 to 23 before thunderstorms return in the west and sunshine develops in the east. The month ends with scattered thunderstorms and mild conditions.
Florida
Florida begins August with isolated thunderstorms and warm conditions through August 9. The Almanac then flags a hurricane threat from August 10 to 12, followed by thunderstorms and mild weather through August 24. The final week is expected to bring sunshine in the north and thunderstorms in the south. August precipitation is forecast at 8 inches, with the north 2 inches below average and the south 2 inches above average.
Lower Great Lakes
The Lower Great Lakes region is expected to begin August with scattered thunderstorms, then sunshine, as temperatures move from warm to cooler through August 16. More scattered thunderstorms follow from August 17 to 25, with cool conditions turning warmer. Heavy rain is forecast in the east from August 26 to 28, while the west stays sunny, before scattered thunderstorms and mild conditions end the month.
Ohio Valley
August starts sunny before thunderstorms arrive, with warm conditions through August 9. A sunny, mild stretch follows from August 10 to 19, then scattered thunderstorms return from August 20 to 28. The month ends sunny and mild. It forecasts an August temperature of 72.5 degrees, 1.5 degrees below average, with precipitation about 1 inch below average.
Deep South
The Deep South begins August with scattered thunderstorms and conditions turning from warm to cooler through August 13. From August 14 to 21, the north is expected to be sunny while the south sees thunderstorms. From August 22 to 24, the Almanac says scattered thunderstorms are likely in the east while the west faces a tropical storm threat. Thunderstorms then give way to sunshine to close the month.
Upper Midwest
The Upper Midwest outlook starts with isolated thunderstorms and warm weather, followed by a sunny and warm period from August 8 to 12. From August 13 to 18, the east is forecast to stay sunny while the west sees isolated thunderstorms, with very warm conditions. A few thunderstorms return from August 19 to 24 before the month ends with sunshine, then showers and a turn toward cooler weather.
Heartland
The Heartland is expected to start August with scattered thunderstorms in the north and sunshine in the south, with heat building through August 7. Sunny and warm conditions follow from August 8 to 15, before a few thunderstorms arrive during a warm stretch from August 16 to 20. Isolated thunderstorms are expected later in the month. The Almanac predicts an August temperature of 73 degrees—2 degrees below average—as well as 4.5 inches of precipitation.
Texas-Oklahoma
The Texas-Oklahoma region begins August sunny before a few thunderstorms develop, with warm conditions in the north and hot weather in the south. Heavy thunderstorms are expected from August 10 to 12, followed by sunshine and isolated thunderstorms through August 22. A tropical storm threat is listed for August 23 to 25, before a few thunderstorms and warm conditions end the month.
High Plains
August opens with sunshine and heat in the northern High Plains while the south sees thunderstorms and cooler conditions. A few thunderstorms and cool weather follow from August 6 to 10. Sunshine returns before isolated thunderstorms develop from August 11 to 19, then scattered thunderstorms and hot conditions are expected from August 20 to 23. The month ends with sunshine, then a few thunderstorms and warm weather.
Intermountain Region
The Intermountain Region is forecast to begin August with sunshine and hot conditions in the north, while the south sees a few thunderstorms and warm weather. Sunny, warm conditions follow from August 12 to 15. From August 16 to 22, the north stays sunny and warm while the south sees isolated thunderstorms and hot conditions. Isolated thunderstorms and warm weather are expected from August 23 through the end of the month.
Desert Southwest
The Desert Southwest begins August with scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions. From August 6 to 11, thunderstorms are expected in the east while the west stays sunny. A longer sunny stretch follows from August 12 to 23, with warm conditions in the east and hotter weather in the west. Isolated thunderstorms return from August 24 to 31.
Pacific Northwest
The Pacific Northwest starts August sunny and hot, before isolated thunderstorms give way to sunshine and warm conditions from August 6 to 21. Scattered showers and cooler weather are expected from August 22 to 25. The region then ends the month sunny and turning hot. The Almanac forecasts an August temperature of 69 degrees, 2 degrees above average, with precipitation a half-inch below average.
Pacific Southwest
The Pacific Southwest is expected to stay mostly sunny through August. The month begins with hot inland conditions and warmer weather along the coast. From August 10 to 17, isolated sprinkles are possible in the north while the south stays sunny. Sunny and hot conditions follow from August 18 to 21, before the month ends with hot inland weather and cooler coastal conditions. August precipitation is forecast at zero inches, which is considered average.
Alaska
Alaska begins August with showers in the north and central areas and rainy periods in the south, with cool conditions lasting through August 15. From August 16 to 21, rainy periods are forecast in the Panhandle, while isolated showers affect the east and west. The Almanac then calls for rain and snow showers in the north, sunny and warm conditions in central Alaska, and periods of rain in the south from August 22 to 31.
Hawaii
Hawaii’s August outlook begins with scattered showers in the east and west, sunshine in central areas, and hot conditions through August 16. From August 17 to 31, showers are forecast, with more isolated activity in central and western areas, while temperatures remain warm. The Almanac forecasts August precipitation of 0.2 inches, 0.4 inches below average, and a temperature of 80.5 degrees—1 below average.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Dave Siminoff.
