Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction, Pick for Cincinnati Open

The round of 16 at the Cincinnati Open goes down on Wednesday, and Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime will be one of the highlights in the night session.

Both players came into the tournament with questionable form and fitness but have performed well through their first two matches in Cincinnati. 

Below, we’ll break down our Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 8:10 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.

Make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks for Wednesday’s match now!

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction, Favorite for the Cincinnati Open Round of 16

Below are the payouts for who will win Wednesday’s Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime match, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Cincinnati Open Prediction – Wednesday, August 19

Match Winner Payouts: Tiafoe 2.63x | Auger-Aliassime 1.42x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the Cincinnati Open: Tiafoe 32-15 | Auger-Aliassime 30-14
Head-to-Head Record: Auger-Aliassime leads 3-1
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel

Frances Tiafoe arrived in Cincinnati with muted expectations following a first-round exit in Washington and a retirement in Montreal due to a right-hand issue, giving him just a 1-2 record over his last two events. He even underwent a minor procedure to remove a cyst from that hand roughly a week before his first match here.

Despite the concerns, Tiafoe is into the round of 16 following wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Learner Tien. While a victory over a struggling Sonego wasn’t entirely unexpected, the 28-year-old’s 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win over Tien — the world No. 12 — perhaps offered a better indication of his level. 

Impressed by his opponent’s play, Tien joked after the match that Tiafoe must have been lying about his recent surgery.

Meanwhile, Felix Auger-Aliassime entered with his own questions. Before coming to Cincinnati, Auger-Aliassime pulled out of the Canadian Open due to a back issue, leaving him without a match for more than a month after reaching the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.

But like Tiafoe, FAA has had an encouraging Cincinnati Open run thus far, netting a pair of straight-set wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Juan Manuel Cerundolo, both roughly top-50 players. In the last round against Cerundolo, Auger-Aliassime won a whopping 90% of his first-serve points and wasn’t broken once.

Both players have generally performed well on hard courts this season, with FAA holding a 17-6 record and Tiafoe going 18-9. 

However, despite ranking inside the top five, Auger-Aliassime has posted a modest record vs. top-50 players (12-10) across all surfaces, while Tiafoe has held his own against both top-20 (6-7) and top-10 opponents (3-3).

Auger-Aliassime leads the head-to-head 3-1, but it’s Tiafoe who won their most recent meeting — a three-set victory at Halle a couple of months ago.  

FAA is the clear favorite on paper as the world No. 4. However, Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings have the two players closely matched on hard courts, projecting a roughly 50/50 matchup. That suggests the underdog could have shot in this one, particularly with the backing of the pro-American crowd.

Make your Tiafoe vs. Auger-Aliassime Cincinnati Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Pick for the Cincinnati Open on Wednesday

FAA has a big serve, but he’s hit just 6 and 7 aces in his first two matches. His 12.1% and 11.1% ace rates in those matches are well below his 15.1% rate on hard courts this year.

Auger-Aliassime has uncharacteristically logged a higher double-fault rate than usual, too, producing marks of 8.6% and 9.3% in the previous two rounds. He’s normally at 3.5%.

While the Cincinnati Open typically plays fast, the courts might be playing slower this year, making it more difficult to generate aces.

Across five hard-court matches this summer, Tiafoe has been aced 10, 9, 5, 7, and 8 times. Three of those matches went to a deciding third set as well.

Felix Auger-Aliassime Pick – 13.5 Aces

Make Your Cincinnati Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Frances Tiafoe and Felix Auger-Aliassime will face each other for the fifth time on Wednesday night. Who moves on to the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals?

Don’t wait until Wednesday’s matches start — make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily tennis predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.