Hurricane Nolo now a Category 4; hurricane watch issued

Hurricane Nolo has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane as it moves westward into more favorable conditions. Its winds have increased 55 mph in just 24 hours.

Hurricane watches are now up for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. While the storm is pulling away from the more populated islands, impacts are still being felt.

Happening now

The storm is beginning to turn north, now moving west-northwestward at about 12 mph. Wind alerts remain for portions of the Big Island and Maui County, where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

While the rain is now pulling away from the islands, mudslides and flooding could still be a concern as soil is loose on steep terrain.

Rainfall totals over 14 inches have been reported at the highest elevations of the Big Island.

What is the forecast for Hurricane Nolo?

Nolo continues to move into warmer water, which is helping it intensify.

Nolo could get stronger, peaking in intensity as a Category 5 hurricane on Monday. Beyond Monday, Nolo should begin to weaken. It will begin to turn toward the northwest and eventually due north before taking another sharp turn to the west on Wednesday.

(MORE: What a forecast cone really means)

Impacts

Winds

The highest risk for winds capable of at least some tree damage and power outages is expected across parts of the Big Island and Maui County.

In addition, wind gusts will likely be stronger both at the tops of and downwind of mountain slopes in the entire island chain.

Coastal flooding, high surf

Larger swells are producing dangerous surf and rip currents to the island chain. This should last for the next few days.

Remnant landslide threat

As the storm passes south of the islands, the rain threat has ended for the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

But the threat of landslides remains, especially in areas of steep terrain.

Be aware that the flooding and debris can travel far beyond where the heaviest rain falls.

The Big Island and parts of Maui County were hit hard by flooding, mudslides and strong winds from Hurricane Lala in mid-August, and some places just recently got power restored.

Big Island’s strongest hurricane in decades?

Only one other major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane has tracked within 150 miles of the Big Island, according to NOAA’s hurricane database.

That was August 1959’s Hurricane Dot, which went on to slam into Kauai after brushing south of the Big Island.

So Nolo is the strongest Big Island impact from a hurricane in 67 years.

Fourth flood event

This system will become the fourth this hurricane season to at least graze Hawaii, bringing flooding and winds to most of the state.

We first had Hurricane Lala in mid-August, with an eyewall that grazed the southern end of the Big Island. Torrential rain hit, and gusty winds caused power outages to skyrocket.

(MORE: Lala Recap)

Next up was Tropical Storm Moke, which tracked farther south than Lala but still struck parts of the Big Island with rain and winds from its outer bands. Moke’s impacts were less significant, but flooding still occurred because the ground remained saturated from Lala.

Then there was Hurricane Lowell, a powerful hurricane that reached Category 5 strength at its peak. The storm weakened before making its closest pass, but it slammed the western islands with wind, rain and waves.

(MORE: Lowell Recap)

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