dpThree Kalshi tickets · all in the 4:25 p.m. ET window · Sunday, September 13
The NFL pushed out their Wednesday night appetizer followed by Thursday Night Tapas in Australia. Now, the main course: 10 straight hours of professional football. No doubt you’ve been hit with a million suggestions, so I went deep, and a little off the deep end, and did the homework for you:
GEM
Dallas Goedert, anytime touchdown — Commanders @ Eagles, Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM ET
| Book (DraftKings) | Kalshi 1+ (bid / ask) | Kalshi 2+ (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| +200 (33¢) | 29¢ / 30¢ | 3¢ / 5¢ |
Stamped Saturday, September 12, 2026, 3:48 PM ET. Re-checked Sunday, 9:30 AM ET: DraftKings +215 (32¢), Kalshi 1+ 28¢ / 29¢, 2+ 3¢ / 4¢. Both sides came in a cent overnight; he’s cheaper this morning than he is on the graphic.
Philadelphia’s red-zone tight end, priced like a guy who catches one pass a game. The book wants 33 cents for the same touchdown the exchange sells at 30, and the 2+ side is a nickel. Not good, for the book. He’s also the top row on the anytime TD cheat sheet this week, so this isn’t a hunch that showed up Saturday.
The one people will talk themselves out of is next.
UPSET
Miami Dolphins to win — Dolphins @ Raiders, Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM ET
| Kalshi (bid / ask) | Book (DraftKings) |
|---|---|
| 39¢ / 40¢ | +142 (41¢) |
Stamped Saturday, 3:48 PM ET. Re-checked Sunday, 9:30 AM ET: unchanged, 39¢ / 40¢ on the exchange, +142 at the book. Nobody moved it overnight, which is its own tell.
Four in ten, at the exchange and at the book, and it’s the side people have to talk themselves out of. Las Vegas lost Brock Bowers to a meniscus trim this week and every sportsbook pulled his props; the moneyline barely blinked. The price-blind panel went nine of nine on Miami here, which is the one game on the slate where all nine seats agreed with each other and not the market.
The one nobody knows is on the roster is last.
PROP
Tank Bigsby, 25+ rushing yards — Commanders @ Eagles, Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM ET
| Kalshi 25+ (bid / ask) | Book (DraftKings), posted line |
|---|---|
| 34¢ / 36¢ | Over 17.5 at -115 (53.5¢) |
Stamped Sunday, September 13, 2026, 10:10 AM ET. The book’s number is a different line, not a different price: DraftKings hangs him at 17.5 yards, so the 25+ contract is a bet that he gets more work than that line assumes. His 1+ touchdown sits at 14¢ / 17¢ on the same board.
The live order book on Tank Bigsby 25+ rushing yards, real screenshot of the tool: 34¢ bid, 36¢ ask, one contract on the ask and $5.8K resting underneath it.
There’s real value in a guy most people don’t even know plays for the Eagles. Why would they, when Philly boasts Saquon Barkley and a dominant offensive line? That line still exists when Bigsby spells Barkley, especially in the red zone. Plus, there’s a pretty good chance this one gets away from Washington, which means the Birds keep their star back on ice in a blowout and the carries go to the name nobody bothered to look up.
My Take
Goedert at 30 cents is the one I’m actually buying, because a nickel for a second score from a red-zone tight end is a price the board fell asleep on. Miami at 40 is the one I’ll hold my nose and take, because Vegas without Bowers is a worse team than a two-cent move admits. Bigsby at 36 is the one the room hasn’t heard of, and that’s the point: the book has him at 17.5 yards behind that line, and a blowout hands him the fourth quarter.
Monday grades these in public.
Ledger: debut edition, nothing to grade yet. Next week opens with these three, hit or miss, before a single new ticket.
More on the week’s board: the NFL prediction-markets hub.
Kalshi contracts are CFTC-regulated event derivatives, not sportsbook wagers, and can lose their full value. 18+. Available where Kalshi operates. These are market prices and my own reads of them, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice.
