Last Gasps: Mariners vs. Rangers Series Preview

Losing three of four to the Athletics over the weekend pretty much killed any hope the Mariners had of making a dramatic last second entrance back into the playoff race. Technically, their playoff odds still stand at 6.6% but they’d need to win close to 80% of their remaining 18 games just to reach .500. Even that probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the Astros in the division. But there’s still a chance, even after that terrible, horrible, no good, very bad series against the A’s.

Technically, the Rangers are still alive in both the AL West and AL Wild Card races, but they haven’t made any forward progress in either chase since the beginning of August. Their playoff odds currently sit at 26.6% but they’re four games under .500 since the All-Star break. The problem is their schedule. These three games against the Mariners and a three-game set against the Blue Jays during the second to last weekend of the season are the only games against direct opponents in either playoff race. That means the team needs to win a bunch and needs some help from around the league to leapfrog the teams ahead of them. Critically, they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland and Toronto in the Wild Card race but lost their season series against Houston.

The Rangers activated Corey Seager off the IL on July 31 and he’s been one of their best hitters over the last month plus; since returning from his back injury, he’s posted a 139 wRC+ with five home runs. Ezequiel Duran capably filled in at shortstop while Seager was sidelined but hit well enough to play his way into an everyday role while Josh Jung has been injured. He’s been the team’s best player since the All-Star break with a 139 wRC+. Wyatt Langford (107 wRC+) and Brandon Nimmo (106) have both been fine during the second half of the season, but the team needs more from both of them if they want to make a run at a playoff spot over these next three weeks.

Cody Bradford looked like he was in the midst of a breakout season back in 2024 before he injured his elbow and underwent an internal brace procedure in 2025. Impeccable command and an excellent changeup allowed him to overcome a pretty mediocre fastball, helping him produce a 5.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.54 ERA in 13 starts. Since returning from his injury nearly two years later, his whiff rate has completely collapsed. He’s not generating any swings and misses with any of his pitches and his command is still a little off following his surgery.

Cal Quantrill started out the season as the long reliever in the Rangers’ bullpen but injuries have forced the team to move him back into the starting rotation over the last two and a half months. To his credit, he’s thrived back in a role that he has much more experience in. Since June 23, he’s posted a 2.41 ERA and a 3.71 FIP across 12 starts and two relief appearances. He’s been particularly good since the beginning of August, allowing just seven runs in 38 innings with an excellent 5.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

From a previous series preview:

Kumar Rocker has taken a big step forward this year, not because he’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio in any meaningful way, but simply because he isn’t allowing as much hard contact. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from where it’s been during his first two seasons in the big leagues, but his hard hit and barrel rates allowed have dropped significantly. The biggest change in his profile is a greater emphasis on his death ball slider; he’s throwing it 38% of the time, is running a 41% whiff rate with it, and opposing batters have produced a .211 wOBA against it. His other pitches don’t stand out in any meaningful way, so it really seems like his improvement stems from leaning on his best pitch a lot more often.

Rocker allowed two runs in 6.2 innings in his previous outing against the Mariners. He struck out seven.

Just in case you’re holding out hope for a miracle, the Astros play the Phillies, the Guardians play the Orioles, and the Blue Jays play the Athletics this week.