Paul vs. Hurkacz Prediction, Pick for the Cincinnati Open – Saturday, August 15

The second round of the Cincinnati Open gets underway on Saturday, and we’ll see a battle of former top-10 players between Tommy Paul and Hubert Hurkacz as the third match on Center Court. 

Below, we’ll break down our Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 1:20 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.

Make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks for Saturday’s match now!

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Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz Prediction, Favorite for the Cincinnati Open Second Round

Below are the payouts for who will win Saturday’s Paul vs. Hurkacz match, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz Cincinnati Open Prediction – Saturday, August 15

Match Winner Payouts: Paul 1.78x | Hurkacz 1.92x
Tournament Round: Second Round
2026 Record Entering the Cincinnati Open: Paul 33-15 | Hurkacz 15-15
Head-to-Head Record: Paul leads 3-2
Scheduled Time: 1:20 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel

As shown by his record, Tommy Paul has generally enjoyed a positive 2026 campaign, and he’s still ranked just inside the top 25. Paul won a title at Houston while also finishing as a finalist in three other events (Queen’s Club, Hamburg, and Delray Beach).

However, his play has dipped of late. Since that runner-up finish at Queen’s Club, Paul lost in the third round at Wimbledon to today’s opponent, Hubert Hurkacz, and he’s gone 1-2 in his two hard-court events this summer. 

Paul’s last two losses have been particularly concerning. World No. 72 Kamil Majchrzak defeated him 7-5, 7-6(4) in Washington, while Learner Tien dominated the stat sheet in a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Paul at the Canadian Open.

As for Hurkacz, he remains outside the top 50 after his ranking took a significant hit when he missed the second half of last year due to injury. He also struggled considerably when he returned at the beginning of the season, at one point enduring a seven-match losing streak.

Despite those setbacks, Hurkacz reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, and he’s now won three of four matches on hard courts this summer. He opened his Cincinnati run with a comfortable straight-sets victory over Sho Shimabukuro. 

The Polish player has reached the quarterfinals or better in his last two Cincinnati Opens, and he’s historically performed well on hard courts, as six of his eight titles have come on the surface.

Hurkacz’s win over Paul at Wimbledon broke a three-match losing streak to the American. While Paul still leads the head-to-head 3-2, two of the American’s three wins have come on clay, which has generally been Hurkacz’s weaker surface.

Overall, this looks like two players trending in opposite directions, and particularly with Hurkacz getting the best of Paul just last month, he could be a dangerous underdog today.    

Make your Paul vs. Hurkacz Cincinnati Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz Pick for the Cincinnati Open on Saturday

Tommy Paul Pick – 16.5 Fantasy Score

Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

Paul has scored -1, 4, 20.5, and -1.5 fantasy points over his last four matches. The -1 came against Hurkacz at Wimbledon.

The American has faced at least 9 break points in each of his last three matches this summer, showing how shaky his service games have been.

On hard courts this season, Hurkacz boasts an 18.8% ace rate and has won 69.5% of his service points. That’s the second-best ace rate among the top 100 players.

Despite the Polish player’s poor play to open the year, he’s won 11 of 17 matches versus players ranked inside the top 50. He comes into today having won his last four matches against top-30 players, too.

Make Your Cincinnati Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Tommy Paul is the favorite against Hubert Hurkacz but comes into Cincinnati in questionable form. Can Paul avoid the upset on Saturday?

Don’t wait until Saturday’s matches start—make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!

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