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Quinn Allen
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 31, 2026 , 02:55 PM ET
• 4 min read
Nick Martinez has been one of the American League’s most reliable starters, while Erick Fedde continues to struggle, giving Tampa Bay a decisive edge as -142 home favorites tonight.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Nick Martinez of the Tampa Bay Rays MLB
The first-place Tampa Bay Rays open their series against the Chicago White Sox tonight as -144 favorites at home, with veteran right-hander Nick Martinez getting the start.
Martinez has been one of Tampa Bay’s most reliable arms this season, and my White Sox vs. Rays predictions back the Rays to extend their winning streak to three games.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 31.
Who will win White Sox vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-142)
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to play well, and they will be confident with Nick Martinez on the hill. The righty is in impressive form, posting a 3.21 xERA across his last four appearances.
During that span, he’s allowed just 1.19 BB/9 and 0.79 HR/9 while limiting opponents to a 27.4% hard-hit rate. The Chicago White Sox aren’t exactly thriving offensively either, posting a 92 wRC+ over the last week.
As for Erick Fedde, he is having real trouble lately. Fedde sports a 7.78 FIP in his previous two outings, giving up an alarming 4.32 HR/9. The Rays aren’t lighting it up at the dish right now, but their home wRC+ sits at 114, compared to a 97 mark on the road.
Martinez throws another gem, and the Rays capitalize on Fedde’s vulnerabilities.
I’ll play this pick up to -160, but no higher. Given Fedde’s issues with the long ball, the runline offers value as well.
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White Sox vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-116)
The Under feels like the logical play tonight. Even though the Rays swing it much better at home, they have produced just a 92 wRC+ over their last six games, matching Chicago’s recent mark. Both bullpen profiles also point to fewer late-game runs once the starters depart.
The Tampa Bay relief corps owns a solid 1.88 xERA over its previous 25.1 frames while holding opponents to a mere 1.6% barrel rate. As for the White Sox pen, it has posted a 3.85 FIP over the last week while surrendering just 0.56 HR/9.
I do expect Fedde to give up some runs, while Martinez should keep Chicago quiet. But once both starters exit, runs could be difficult to come by considering the current form of these bullpens.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 38-51, -17.97 units
- Over/Under bets: 48-39, +2.61 units
White Sox vs Rays weather
Outside conditions around Tropicana Field look warm and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. There is some shower risk in the area, but Tropicana Field’s indoor setup means weather should not affect scoring, ball carry, or delay risk.
White Sox vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +133 | Tampa Bay -138
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-156) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)
White Sox vs Rays trend
The Under is 5-0 in Rays’ last 5 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Rays.
How to watch White Sox vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla. |
| Date | Friday, July 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CHSN, Rays.TV |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.25 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (10-2, 2.45 ERA) |
White Sox vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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