dpALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – New Mexico could see slightly better rain chances later this week, with the best shot at rain on Thursday as tropical moisture moves in.
A strong monsoon high is centered near our friends in El Paso this morning and will send daytime highs soaring into +100° territory for many valley/lower elevation spots around the state.
Heat Advisories have been issued for the Albuquerque Metro/Rio Rancho/Middle Rio Grande Valley, Sandia/Manzano Mountains including Edgewood, West Central Highlands, Lower Rio Grande Valley, Upper Tularosa Valley, South Central Mountains, most of Lincoln County, and nearly all of our southern counties from 12 p.m. – 8 p.m.
Even mountainous locales are looking at highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. With the rapid daytime heating, we may see breezes kick up today. Wind gusts ranging from 15-25 mph are likely for many locations around the state.
For crews trying to contain both the Deer Canyon Fire in southwest Torrance County and the Rio Fire in the Santa Fe National Forest may have a slightly more difficult time due to the gustier conditions and the low humidity at the surface. Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings have not been triggered from these conditions for New Mexico, but it is something that could hinder those firefighting efforts. Red Flag Warnings, however, have been issued for our southern Colorado counties (Montezuma County, La Plata County, Archuleta County, Conejos County, Alamosa County, and western Costilla County) from 12 p.m. – 10 p.m.
There are low chances for rain for some, although rain making it to the ground will be hard to come by. Mainly dry isolated showers/storms to form around the Southwest Mountains and a spot storm or two around the Sacramento Mountains/southwest Chaves County are possible later this afternoon and evening. Some sprinkles may make it to the ground, but these cells may produce some gusty winds. Some of those gusts may make it to the metro.
Storms out to the east of New Mexico this evening may send another outflow boundary towards eastern New Mexico communities, which may cause a few storms to form. High-resolution model guidance is having a hard time picking this up, as well, but the Storm Prediction Center has placed a low-end 1 out of 5 marginal risk from eastern Colfax County through Harding County and stretching south. A slight 2 out of 5 risk is possible for the northeast corner of New Mexico. This is a very conditional threat and would only apply if a storm forms. If a storm does form, the best timeline for this would be from 4 p.m. – midnight and the main threats are large hail and strong damaging winds.
