dpA strong and vigorous weather maker will be crossing our area late Wednesday through Wednesday night. The combination of warmth, humidity and other atmospheric dynamics has placed much of Western and Central New York in the crosshairs of thunderstorms which locally could cause wind damage, hail and possibly more.
It’s part of our next weather makers:
Central New York’s next weather makers
Before getting to Wednesday and Wednesday night, it appears that Tuesday night should be relatively quiet with a partly cloudy sky. However, due to high humidity and dew point levels, there will likely be areas of fog and low clouds that will form. The best chance for fog and even dense fog will be fog prone areas especially south and east of Syracuse. If you end up in fog, please slow down especially when the visibility is low.
Otherwise, let’s discuss timing and impacts of these thunderstorms.
Here is an overall look at the threats for Wednesday and Wednesday night:
Severe thunderstorm and flash flooding risks for Wednesday and Wednesday night via the Storm Prediction & Weather Prediction Centers
Looking at this chart above, the highest risk for damaging thunderstorms will be for western areas of Central New York and points west into Western New York. However, the threat for flash flooding is actually highest within Central New York.
Let’s discuss timing and other impacts:
–Our first opportunity for a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east across Western New York early to mid-morning and then whatever is leftover of that line if it survives the trip would cross the Fair and the I-81 corridor roughly at the end of the morning and lunch hour. The best chance for any severe thunderstorms from this initial line appears to be west of our local area. However, it does bare watching and we will for you.
–While I cannot rule out a widely isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon, it appears that the best chance for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms would cross into Central New York around or after sunset Wednesday. It looks to me that the highest risk for any wind damage, hail damage or possibly an isolated tornado would be with this initial line of thunderstorms around or after sunset. The highest risk for damage does come for wind and hail. However, computer models indicate the potential for rotating thunderstorms anywhere in Central and Western New York. This is why we need to at least include a very low risk that someone in the immediate CNY area gets a tornado. The highest risk locally would be across the Finger Lakes region and points west into Western New York. We will monitor,
–Thereafter, some of our computer models redevelop additional downpours and/or thunderstorms during Wednesday night after the initial line of thunderstorms. These same computer models indicated 2-4″ of rain or more during Wednesday night. This is why I have included at relatively high 15 to 30% risk for flash flooding within 25 miles of any one spot across the immediate Central New York area. It is unknown where precisely the repetitive heaviest thunderstorms would be in our local area. However, if you live in a flash flood prone area, you should at least be paying attention to what is going on Wednesday night.
For more specifics about this, watch my video forecast:
Video forecast from NBC3 News Live at 5:30 PM Tuesday September 1st, 2026
