Prediction, pick for Oumar Sy vs. Modestas Bukauskas at UFC Paris

Light heavyweights collide on Saturday night, as hometown favorite Oumar Sy faces Modestas Bukauskas at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse in Paris, France. 

Sy (12–2, 3–2 UFC) has dropped two of his last three bouts, coming off a first-round submission loss to Ion Cutelaba in March. Bukauskas has won five of his last six, capped by a split-decision victory over Christian Edwards in May. 

Sy enters as a -230 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Bukauskas is a +190 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Sy vs. Bukauskas Preview

Oumar Sy

  • 12–2 (3–2 UFC)
  • 5–0 (T)KO
  • 4–1 SUB

Once a surging prospect, Oumar Sy has recently seen his momentum stall. He rebounded from his first professional loss with a first-round stoppage over Brendson Ribeiro last September, only to find himself on the receiving end of a finish by grizzled veteran Ion Cutelaba earlier this year. 

Sy, 30, remains a formidable foe behind his elite striking defense (66 percent) and aggressive grappling. However, his relentless pursuit of takedowns ultimately led to his downfall in his last fight, when he got caught in a guillotine and tapped out almost immediately — raising concerns about his resilience under pressure. The French contender will look to shift that narrative with a statement performance in his backyard, where he’s gone 2–0 since joining the UFC.

Modestas Bukauskas

  • 20–7 (8–5 UFC)
  • 11–5 (T)KO
  • 3–1 SUB

Modestas Bukauskas has enjoyed much more success in his second UFC run, going 7–2 since returning to the promotion in early 2023. “The Baltic Gladiator” has won five of his last six bouts — a run that includes a split-decision victory over Ion Cutelaba, a first-round stoppage against Paul Craig, and, most recently, another split-decision over Christian Edwards. 

The 32-year-old Lithuanian has shown his mettle against grapplers, arriving in Paris with a sound 82 percent takedown defense. There’s a runway for Bukauskas to stage an upset if he can keep the fight on the feet — so long as he can mitigate the damage on his compromised chin.

Sy vs. Bukauskas Pick, Best Bet

Oumar Sy enters Saturday night as the younger, taller, and longer fighter — add to that home-court advantage. And yet, it’s hard to see him pulling out the victory against Modestas Bukauskas. 

Despite his status as a top prospect, Sy’s Octagon performances have been anything but elite; they’ve underscored that he’s beatable and has a tendency to wilt under pressure. “The Baltic Gladiator” is by no means a title contender, though he enters Saturday on a strong run of form and with a proven track record against grapplers. At these long odds, there’s solid value in backing Bukauskas to get his hand raised in Paris.

Best Bet: Modestas Bukauskas Moneyline (+190)

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