dpWe expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.
Gasoline prices moved higher in August after slipping in June and July but gains late in the month may be missed by the PPI survey. We expect goods PPI ex food and energy to rise by 0.2%, stronger than July’s 0.1% but still showing the last three months significantly slower than the first five months of 2026. The slowing is likely to reflect a fading impact from tariffs. The recent escalation with Canada came too late to impact August PPI significantly.
We expect a 0.4% increase in services, stronger than July’s 0.2% with transport and warehousing likely to pick up after two straight declines that followed five straight gains, largely because Middle East risks, which cased particularly strong gains in March, April and May, have picked up again. We are not due for a big move in trade which was almost unchanged in July, but the series is volatile, with gains in April and July balanced by a sharp fall in May. Other services were strong in July with a rise of 0.6%. August is likely to be slightly slower, but still clearly positive.
Weak data in August 2025 will see yr/yr growth picking up, overall to 5.3% from 4.7%, and ex food and energy to 4.7% from 4.2%, both largely reversing slowings in July. August 2025 data was not so weak ex food, anergy and trade, and here yr/yr data is likely to see only a modest acceleration to 4.8% from 4.7%. This will remain below the 5.0% seen in May and June but will still be too high for comfort.
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