dpST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Hello Astros fans. The team began a brutal road trip with a thrilling series win against the Philadelphia Phillies.
After securing the victory on Thursday, FanGraphs gave Houston an 88.4 percent chance of making the postseason and 85.7 percent odds to win the woeful American League West. Not bad for a team that dismissed its general manager and does not have its team leader on the field.
Most of your curiosity surrounds those two absences. Let’s talk about it.
Is Carlos Correa’s return to the lineup an actual possibility since only 15 games remain? Maybe the final road trip if so? — Brian K.
It is a very real possibility, Brian. As Correa said last month, “I wouldn’t be doing all this work if I didn’t think there was a chance.”
All this work is now being done at the Astros’ spring training facility in West Palm Beach, Fla., where Correa is expected to increase his baseball activities, run the bases and face live pitching during bridge-league games.
Correa and manager Joe Espada have insisted the 31-year-old third baseman will require a minor-league rehab assignment in addition to whatever work he completes in West Palm Beach. Given Correa hasn’t played a major-league game since May 4, it is a sensible course of action.
Triple-A Sugar Land’s regular season concludes with a six-game homestand from Sept. 15-20 at Constellation Field. The Astros begin their season-ending, six-game road trip on Sept. 21 at T-Mobile Park. Presuming Correa doesn’t have any setbacks, he seems primed for a return during the season’s final six games.
How do you envision the Astros using Carlos Correa when he returns? — Keith G.
Attempts to ask this question have been unsuccessful, Keith. Espada has avoided answering any of them. Four people are running Houston’s baseball operations department, but the team has made none of them available to discuss the roster.
Questions will intensify across this next week, especially if Correa continues to make progress in West Palm Beach. Espada has confirmed that Correa will play third base upon his return, but has not specified what that means for current third baseman Isaac Paredes.
Paredes entered Thursday with the team’s second-highest OPS and an enormous responsibility of hitting behind American League MVP front-runner Yordan Alvarez in the batting order.
Paredes isn’t coming out of the lineup. Moving him to second base is the most logical solution, even if there is industry-wide skepticism about his ability to play the position. Then again, the Astros’ current second baseman, Jose Altuve, entered Thursday worth minus-16 defensive runs saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. No second baseman in the sport has been worse.
If Paredes usurps Altuve at second base, it will mean that one of Altuve or Alvarez will have to play left field. Alvarez has started 22 games there this season. After attempting to move to left field last year, Altuve hasn’t appeared there at all this season. He hasn’t had any pregame work out there, either — at least none that the public has seen.
With all of that in mind, the most straightforward setup would be to play Correa at third base, Paredes at second, Alvarez in left field and Altuve as the primary designated hitter. Whether the team agrees — or will even acknowledge it — is a mystery.
Kyle Tucker’s trade is turning out to be a great deal. Chances in the offseason we do the same with (Jeremy) Peña or (Hunter) Brown? — Tal W.
Dana Brown may be gone, Tal, but his fingerprints will remain on this franchise for however long Hayden Wesneski, Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith are in uniform. Parlaying one year of Kyle Tucker into this trio — and its combined 13 years of club control — was undoubtedly Brown’s most shrewd move in charge.
As Astros, Paredes, Wesneski and Smith have combined to accumulate 10.4 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. Tucker has been worth 4.7 bWAR since the trade. Those numbers aren’t everything, but they help quantify value.
Wesneski has morphed into one of Houston’s most consistent starters since recovering from Tommy John surgery. Paredes has been everything the Astros envisioned — even though they worked tirelessly to trade him this offseason. Smith is still developing and, perhaps, hasn’t lived up to the “aircraft carrier” moniker Brown often bestowed on him. But at 23 years old, he already has a 20-homer season and became a Gold Glove finalist in right field. The potential is obvious.
Brown’s dismissal brought several unknowns about the direction of Houston’s baseball operations department, but trading Tucker created a precedent. Whether the new general manager in charge will adhere to it is a mystery.
If they do, Peña is far more likely to be traded this winter than Hunter Brown. Peña will enter this offseason with one more year of club control remaining — an identical situation to Tucker in 2024. Brown, meanwhile, will have two more years of team control.
Jeremy Peña has hit 11 home runs in 46 games since the All-Star break. (Kyle Ross / Imagn Images)
Why does it feel like the Astros’ starting pitchers are so inefficient with their pitch counts? — Susie C.
Entering Thursday, only three pitching staffs threw a lower percentage of their pitches in the strike zone than the Astros. Only four generated a lower swing rate from opponents than the 46.7 percent clip Houston’s pitchers are receiving.
That’s it in a nutshell, Susie. The staff as a whole struggles to throw strikes and, as a result, can’t generate swings. Astros pitchers have produced a 29.5 percent chase rate, the seventh-lowest in the sport. They are walking 4.1 batters per nine innings, which trails only the Cincinnati Reds for the highest mark in baseball.
It is a perfect recipe for inefficiency.
How serious of a GM candidate (is) (Jeff) Bagwell and (Brad) Ausmus? — Steven L.
It is interesting that you ask about them in tandem, Steven. Ausmus’ longstanding friendship with Bagwell is well-known and important to remember when considering this scenario.
A day after dismissing Dana Brown, Astros owner Jim Crane fielded a question specifically about Bagwell’s potential candidacy. Crane began his response by saying, “We don’t have any candidates at this point.”
“We haven’t even started looking,” Crane continued. “Jeff’s in the same role he’s always been — he’s a senior adviser, and he works with the (assistant general managers) and myself and assists when necessary.”
In response to another unrelated question, Crane said, “I’ve learned a lot from (Bagwell) over the years.” If it wasn’t already apparent: Bagwell wields considerable influence within Crane’s inner circle. That isn’t about to change — regardless of whether Bagwell has the title of general manager and the myriad responsibilities that come with it.
Ausmus is a more nuanced conversation. He finished as runner-up to Brown during the Astros’ last general manager search in 2023 and has spent the past three seasons as the New York Yankees’ bench coach. That Ausmus already got so close to being the Astros’ general manager merits obvious attention.
Whether his recent return to the field has altered Ausmus’ outlook is unknown. Perhaps it has piqued his interest in managing again. He could fulfill that possibility in Houston, where Espada is in the final year of his contract and facing uncertainty.
Any GM candidates from outside the organization that you think would be good picks or should be seriously considered? — Alan Z.
Didn’t you hear Crane above, Alan? There are no candidates yet. That settles it.
Just kidding. A few names come to mind. Before listing them, let’s be clear: this is speculation, not sourced reporting. It’s just a few names that would make sense and may be attractive to Crane.
Ausmus has already been discussed. The Baltimore Orioles have a cadre of former Astros employees in their front office, including three assistant general managers: Sig Mejdal, Eve Rosenbaum and Brendan Fournie. Cleveland Guardians assistant general manager James Harris received an interview during the search that netted Dana Brown.
Harris fits one of the profiles Crane described earlier this month. He mentioned that the Astros will study “pretty good teams that don’t have big payrolls.” Cleveland, Harris’ current employer, qualifies.
Others that would fit the mold are former Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, former Philadelphia Phillies general manager Matt Klentak and former Minnesota Twins general manager Thad Levine. Daniels is a senior adviser for the Tampa Bay Rays while Klentak and Levine work for the Milwaukee Brewers.
All three of those men have led baseball operations departments before. None of Crane’s past three hires — Jeff Luhnow, James Click or Dana Brown — had such experience. Crane didn’t answer directly whether experience running an entire department is a prerequisite for this job.
Bear in mind, too, that Crane attempted to purchase the Rangers in 2010, during Daniels’ tenure as general manager. It stands to reason the two at least have some familiarity from that pursuit.
Who the Astros should hire as their next GM
Keith Law
Is (Brent) Strom open to returning next year, or is this really just a month-plus retirement gig? — Aaron M.
Strom received this question on his first day back as a pitching consultant, Aaron. Here is his reply:
“If I stay involved, it would be in the role I am here — consulting, something like that,” Strom said. “I don’t really have a desire to jump in and be the head guy anymore. I’ve already done that gig. I don’t need that stress at this time in my life. I take things personally.”
