2026 Atlantic season’s first hurricane: A record wait?

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has yet to produce a single hurricane, and it could become the longest wait on record in the modern era.

None for 2026, so far

We’ve had four tropical storms so far, but no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin as of late August, including Tropical Storm Dolly.

But it’s not called the Atlantic tropical storm season. It’s hurricane season, and this one has been shut out of hurricanes for the first three months.

That’s largely due to the intensifying El Niño generating hostile conditions for hurricanes, like high wind shear and dry, sinking air over key stretches of the tropical Atlantic Basin.

When it usually happens

We examined data from the last 60 hurricane seasons, from the first year satellites routinely covered the basin in 1966 through 2025.

The average date of the season’s first hurricane in that 60-year satellite era was July 27.

As the graph below shows, that first hurricane arrived most often either in July or August.

How unusual is this long wait?

But as you might have noticed in the graph above, only seven of those 60 years had to wait until September for the first Atlantic hurricane.

It last happened in 2022, which couldn’t even generate a tropical storm in August.

The longest wait for the first hurricane in any satellite era season was Sept. 11, both in 2013 and 2002.

What those late-starting seasons delivered

So, what did those “September first hurricane” seasons eventually produce?

• 2022: After that “0 for August,” September generated four hurricanes. Two of those — Fiona and Ian — were so damaging their names were retired. But that was during a moderate La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, when the environment is typically more supportive of hurricanes.
• 2013: That wasn’t an El Niño season, but an abundance of dry, sinking air allowed only two hurricanes to form all season, tied for record fewest with 1982, which was another year during an emerging super El Niño.
• 2002: That was a moderate El Niño, but after Gustav broke the hurricane drought, Isidore, Kyle and Lili followed from mid-September through early October.
• The other four “September first hurricane” years did not have an El Niño. They eventually produced nine (2001), six (1967) and five (1984, 1988) hurricanes in total for the season.

What could happen this year

Given the intensifying El Niño and its hostile conditions over the basin, it’s not out of the question that 2026 could threaten or surpass that record-long first hurricane wait.

But that doesn’t mean the rest of the season will be a dud.

Both the CSU and Atmospheric G2/The Weather Company outlooks forecast either four or five hurricanes this season in the Atlantic. Remember the record fewest hurricanes in any satellite era season is two, not zero.

If one of those hurricanes, or even a tropical storm with flooding rain, happens near land, it could have significant impacts, even if we’re headed toward a super El Niño.

Stay prepared through the entire season, in case “that one storm” happens this year.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.