dpYou probably don’t remember the hiccup in time when infielder Otto Lopez was a San Francisco Giant, but it did happen. For 5 weeks or so, the team had a 25-year old second baseman who had hit .300/.365/.413 in 2,255 minor league plate appearances. Then, they designated him for assignment and he was claimed by the Marlins. Since then, he’s hit .275/.322/.395 across 2+ seasons (1,343 plate appearances) and with some well above average defense has amassed 7.8 fWAR. This year, he’s playing at an All-Star level: .336/.368/.473 (132 wRC+), 2.9 fWAR. He’s been exactly as valuable as Luis Arraez, but was this another miss by the previous front office?
You know, it’s pretty interesting to chart how we got to the “Aw, geez, I’m just trying to figure it out; baseball is hard” dynamic of the current front office. A general disgust and distrust of computer numbers and “phantom” value, certainly some anti-Dodger sentiment mixed in, and the inability to find a proper post-Bochy figurehead in the dugout; but mainly, the missteps and misfires piled up. I think six seasons was good and plenty for that experiment, but I’m starting to wonder if Buster Posey & Zack Minasian are simply speedrunning the Zaidi era.
Both Posey & Zaidi were both wiz kids in their respective areas of the industry. Both hired similarly inexperienced GMs to work under them. Both hired new managers after their first season on the job — those managerial choices were extremely controversial (for wholly different reasons, of course). Those managers were both well-groomed and appearance-focused. They both were prone to word salad. They both ticked off beat writers and fans alike for basically the same reason. Their managerial choices were somewhat inscrutable, though Gabe Kapler’s strategizing worked out more often than Vitello’s has. But, Buster has undermanaged and understrategized with the roster while Zaidi overmanaged and overstrategized. Both have had managers receive their vote of confidence only to see that manager lose control of the clubhouse (or, in Vitello’s case, never really seem to have had it at all). The key difference might be the upcoming minor league talent, which appears to be thriving a lot more under the new regime.
I mention all this because the Miami Marlins, led by Peter Bendix as the President of Baseball Operations, and now Gabe Kapler as their GM, seem to be what it would’ve looked like if the Zaidi era had gone right. A steady stream of important trades and savvy waiver & rule 5 pickups coalescing into a scrappy team that doesn’t cost much but stays competitive. Part of that is “analytics,” sure, but I’m not blind to the Marlins having a lot of useful inventory to sell over the years and get back some quality, well-scouted (both by human scouts and data analysts) major league talent. Their primary starting lineup does not scream home grown:
C —1st round pick (2021)
1B — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
2B — Acquired in trade with Rays for a pair of minor leaguers (2022)
3B — International free agent signing (2019)
SS — Waiver claim (2024)
LF — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
CF — Acquired in trade with Padres for Luis Arraez (2024)
RF — Acquired in trade with Cubs for Edward Cabrera (2026)
DH — Rule 5 pick (2024)
For this, the Marlins have a middle of the pack lineup (97 wRC+). I didn’t look at the pitching side, but that’s the 10th best in MLB heading into this series. If you’re the Marlins, you need to be able to stay on top of the roster by constantly reinventing it, but if you’re the Giants, all you really have to do — and, it’s not easy, as they’ve shown — is build a roster that is then supplemented by free agents rather than need to rely on them. A quick comparison.
C — Rule 5 pick (2025)
1B — Acquired in trade with the Red Sox for a bunch of dudes (2025)
2B — Free agent (2026)
3B — Free agent (2024)
SS — Free agent (2024)
LF — 2nd round pick (2020)
CF — Gilbert: trade, Bader: free agent
RF — Free agent (2023)
DH — 1st round pick (2023)
Of course, the real comparison point is the results. Since Buster Posey took over, the Giants are 112-124. The Marlins over this same span are just 116-121. Well, okay, that’s not right. The other comparison point is the cost. The Giants have committed $376.2 million since the start of last season while the Marlins have only committed $144.7 million. There’s also a bit more of a lottery ticket/upside play going on with the roster — and if any of the younger players really blossom, they become trade bait that can help refresh the system and the cycle can start anew.
Has the Marlins’ approach been better? Hard to say. But the Giants have been penny wise and pound foolish. Ditching the thought of Kevin Gausman only to spend a lot more money finding a #2 starter. Their inability to draft, develop, or acquire younger players has necessitated resorting to free agency again and again.
But this ship has sailed. The Giants have turned away from the analytical approach and the notion of building a roster from the bottom up — unless, of course, Randy Winn has really transformed the Giants’ farm system into a real winner, because that would really be nice, and there wouldn’t have to be much too much consternation when a player leaves the Giants and is productive elsewhere.
Who: San Francisco Giants (31-43) at Miami Marlins (37-38)
Where: loanDepot park | Miami, Florida
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.24 ERA) vs. Lake Bachar (RHP 0-0, 2.97 ERA)
Saturday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-4, 4.64 ERA) vs. Max Meyer (RHP 7-0, 2.75 ERA)
Sunday: Logan Webb (RHP 4-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP 0-2, 7.24 ERA)
Liam Hicks: In June, he’s been just slightly better than Otto Lopez, posting a 159 wRC+ to Lopez’s 152. He’s done so by hitting for a bit more power (.189 ISO) and a higher on base (.422) thanks to impressive walk and strikeout rates (13.8% and 10.8%, respectively). On the season, he’s hitting .280/.362/.477 with 13 home runs and 52 RBI, a 10.2% walk rate and 9.5% strikeout rate. The Marlins got him in the Rule 5 draft from Detroit. The 27-year old left-handed first baseman/catcher has been another impressive find by the Marlins’ front office.
Kyle Stowers: He was the main piece of the Trevor Rogers deal with the Orioles back in 2024 and quickly became their middle of the lineup hitter, posting an impressive .912 OPS last season in 457 PA. He started this year on the IL and got off to a fast start (6-for-his-first-15), but it was a rough April and May after those first four games (.198/.276/.331 in 134 PA). However, in June, he’s picked it back up, with a line of .241/.323/.537 in 63 PA. He’s hit 4 homers and driven in 16 over this span, too. He has an .841 career OPS against the Giants, too (44 PA).
Lake Bachar: Don’t be fooled by the name. He might sound like a sixth-billed sitcom star from the 80s, but he has swing-and-miss stuff throughout his arsenal. A ~95 mph four-seamer hitters have just a .190 BA against; a 2,669 rpm slider with a 45.5% Whiff rate, a similarly wipeout sweeper, a curveball that has a 37.5% whiff rate, a splitter, and a sinker. He’s basically a reliever, but because the Marlins have two starters on the IL (Janson Junk and Eury Perez), they’ve resorted to opener/bullpen game situations, and you can see how this arsenal makes him a perfect option. This month, Bachar has appeared in 5 games, starting 3 of them, and in 10.2 innings combined he’s struck out 13, walked 3, allowed just 3 hits and a run (0.84 ERA / 1.78 FIP).
Jung Hoo Lee: .364/.391/.364 in 6 games (23 PA) at loanDepot park and in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 80 PA) he’s hitting .468/.475/.597 with a homer, a triple, 5 doubles, 3 stolen bases, just 1 walk (oof), but only 3 strikeouts.
Luis Arraez: .349/.385/.454 in 105 games (446 PA) at loanDepot park is a good sign, I think. Also, in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 129 PA), he’s hitting .339/.362/.513 with a pair of homers, 4 triples, and 6 doubles. He spent about 7 months in a Marlins uniform but was an All-Star for them in 2023 (.354/.393/.469 over the whole season). Chances are he’ll be the Giants’ sole representative this season… unless he’s traded before the All-Star Game.
Logan Webb: He certainly looks like he’s returned to form after that IL stint. He’s made just 2 starts in his career at loanDepot park (yes, the ‘p’ in park is lower case), but they came in 2022 & 2023; so, is his 6.35 ERA in 11.1 innings a portent or a fluke? The Giants are hoping for the latter, of course, and Miami’s middle of the pack strikeout rate and high groundball rate for a lineup (43.8% — 5th in MLB) certainly suggests that a Logan Webb who’s on point will be setup to have another great game.
This section sure has gone off the rails, hasn’t it? I blame myself, of course, but it would be nice if I could put a poll down here in place of any rambling narrative I think up at the last minute, don’t you think? Anyway, the Giants took 2 out of 3 from the Marlins back in April, which seems impossible given how bad the team has been this season, and the Giants have also taken the series in Miami the last two seasons, which also seems impossible, given how tough the Marlins have been on the Giants, historically.
Yhe Marlins are running out two relievers to stanch the bleeding in their rotation, but they’re also 23-16 at home this season with a +30 run differential. Hmm. But the Giants also have their two best starters going in the series, and even if one of them is unsalvageable bigot, I’ll still say the Giants manage to win the series.
